America votes on Tuesday. Why the midterms matter, even if you're not American
Why it hits youWhoever controls Congress decides how much of Trump's agenda survives his last two years, from the war with Iran to tariffs that hit prices worldwide. And the arguments over fraud claims, postal votes and redrawn maps are a test of how much people trust elections.
Every seat in the US House of Representatives and 35 of 100 Senate seats are up for grabs. Republicans control both now. Polls point to Democrats winning the House, with the Senate on a knife-edge. Young Americans lean heavily Democrat, but only a third say they'll definitely vote.
The Facts
What everyone agrees on
Before anyone spins it. Every one of these is checkable.
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Election day is Tuesday 3 November. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 state governors are on the ballot. NBC News ↗
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Republicans control both chambers now: 53 to 47 in the Senate and 219 to 214 in the House. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to take control. NBC News ↗
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Polls asking which party people want running Congress put Democrats ahead: 52% to 43% in NBC's average, and by 8.7 points in Nate Silver's average on 28 October. NBC News and Silver Bulletin ↗
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Control matters: under the US Constitution only the House can impeach a president, and the Senate approves judges and senior officials. US Constitution (National Archives) ↗
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Harvard's youth poll of 2,024 18 to 29-year-olds found young women who will definitely vote back Democrats 66% to 21%, and young men 58% to 32%. Harvard Institute of Politics ↗
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Nearly 50 million Americans aged 18 to 29 are eligible to vote. In early September, 2% more of them were registered than at the same point in 2022. CIRCLE, Tufts University ↗
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On 28 October, prosecutors in Minnesota charged James O'Keefe and Cam Higby with felony unlawful voting over undercover filming at polling stations in the August primary. O'Keefe says they “clearly stopped and walked out” before touching a ballot. AP, via NY1 ↗
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Trump has offered a $1 million reward for tips that lead to voter fraud convictions. There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in US elections. NBC News ↗
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Several states redrew their election maps mid-decade before this vote, including Texas, California, Missouri and North Carolina. Voting Rights Lab ↗
Every Side · 1 of 3
The Democrats' case
“It's the circuit breaker in the system”
Democrats say the midterms are the only way to put limits on Trump for his last two years. Barack Obama, campaigning in Ohio and Michigan, called the vote a “circuit breaker” and attacked what he called “an unnecessary war” with Iran. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has put living costs at the centre, calling them “a stone-cold reality” and accusing Republicans of believing “the affordability crisis is a hoax”. If they win the House, Democrats plan to investigate Trump-linked companies.
- Barack Obama, former president
- Hakeem Jeffries, House Democratic leader
What do “left” and “right” mean?
They're shorthand for two broad sets of political views. People on the left tend to put more weight on equality and on government stepping in to fix problems. People on the right tend to put more weight on tradition, personal freedom and keeping government smaller. The centre sits in between, and most people mix views from all three.
Side labels are our editorial calls for now. How we'll rate lean
Every Side · 2 of 3
The Republicans' case
Let him “finish the job”
Trump is asking voters to keep Republicans in charge so he can “finish the job”, and has promised $5,000 payments to Americans if his party keeps Congress. Vice President JD Vance, campaigning in Ohio, said Democrat Sherrod Brown “uses his power to force your tax dollars to go to fraudsters”. Republicans also say voting rules are too loose: the conservative activist James O'Keefe says his undercover filming in Minnesota exposed “the sheer lunacy” of a system that lets voters vouch for others.
- President Donald Trump
- JD Vance, Vice President
- James O'Keefe, conservative activist
Side labels are our editorial calls for now. How we'll rate lean
Every Side · 3 of 3
The forecasters and young voters
The House looks likely to flip. Young people may not show up
The Cook Political Report expects Democrats to gain 10 to 20 House seats, and says Republicans “largely concede that the House is probably gone”. The Senate is closer to a toss-up. Harvard's youth poll finds 18 to 29-year-olds who will definitely vote back Democrats 63% to 26%, but only 33% say they will definitely vote, down from 40% before the last two midterms. Its pollster said young voters are “poised to deliver a sharp rebuke to President Trump”.
- Erin Covey, Cook Political Report
- John Della Volpe, Harvard Institute of Politics
Side labels are our editorial calls for now. How we'll rate lean
The Blindspot · what the headlines skip
Democrats lead, but many young Democrats don't like their own party
In Harvard's previous youth poll, 48% of young Democrats used a negative word to describe the Democratic Party, compared with a quarter of young Republicans about theirs. Only half of young Democrats say they'll definitely vote. A big poll lead means little if people stay at home.
The Blindspot · what the headlines skip
Fraud claims meet very little evidence
Republicans talk a lot about fraud, but an election expert told AP he knew of no examples of Minnesota's vouching system leading to widespread fraud. The Justice Department has sued Alaska officials, at Trump's request, to stop the Senate result there being certified if the Republican senator loses.
The Blindspot · what the headlines skip
Both parties redraw maps when it suits them
Republicans redrew maps in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina. Democrats answered in California, where voters backed new maps through Proposition 50. Each side calls the other's moves a power grab. Analysts think the redrawing gives Republicans only about three seats overall.
The Blindspot · what the headlines skip
Nobody is sure where the $5,000 would come from
Trump hasn't said where the money for his promised $5,000 payments, or his $1 million fraud reward, would come from.
Your Call
- The Democrats' case: not yet
- The Republicans' case: not yet
- The forecasters and young voters: not yet
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Hero image: File photo: Architect of the Capitol / Wikimedia Commons, public domain · US Capitol, west front, 1997 ↗
By No Glaze News · published